96th Academy Awards: Predictions and Insight
It's almost "Hollywood's Biggest Night" again, and I have thoughts!
As another overlong award season comes to its conclusion, it’s time to take one more significant look at the films of 2023 (for now) in honor of “Hollywood’s Biggest Night.” The 96th Academy Awards are coming very soon, as the show will air live on Sunday, March 10, with plenty of anticipation for a ceremony bound to be full of very safe jokes, a lack of more significant acknowledgment regarding the SAG and WGA strike in favor of back-patting the studios that held out for months, and upcoming disappointment in who’s left out of the “In Memoriam” segment. That said, there are still the awards as well! While there’s one film looking to have a bit of a sweep, there are still several open categories and other considerations for what may end up happening on a night full of outstanding and popular films up for awards. So, I have put together this post covering all my predictions, complete with the logic I've come up with behind each choice.
BEST PICTURE
(Listed in order of preference - only for this category)
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Anatomy of a Fall
American Fiction
Past Lives
The Holdovers
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Maestro
Barbie
The fact is, Oppenheimer has pretty much cruised its way toward this victory. One of the best-reviewed films of the year that happens to have been a massive blockbuster, this is precisely the kind of film that used to rule Oscar in various forms, whether it’s The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King or The Sting. In any case, being a sturdy drama and a visual feast, Oppenheimer has everyone on its side, including all the major awards – SAG, PGA, DGA, BAFTA, and so on. The chances of this film missing out are near zero.
Could Win: The fact that Poor Things and Anatomy of a Fall are the only films that seem remotely close to upsetting Oppy speaks to how certain this is.
I Would Have Nominated: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
BEST DIRECTOR
Justine Triet — “Anatomy of a Fall”
Martin Scorsese — “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Christopher Nolan — “Oppenheimer”
Yorgos Lanthimos — “Poor Things”
Jonathan Glazer — “The Zone of Interest”
Like the likely Best Picture, Nolan has finally found himself as the top bet for Best Director. With only one previous nomination (for Dunkirk), a feeling of “about time” goes along with this, given the popular thoughts concerning his ability to deliver prestige blockbusters to movie theaters that consistently succeed. Nolan has also won all the big awards, including DGA, BAFTA, and other prizes. So don’t think too hard about it, just feel it.
Could Win: DGA also nominated Lanthimos and Scorsese, so there’s always that outside shot, unlikely as it is.
I Would Have Nominated: Chad Stahelski, John Wick: Chapter 4
BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper — “Maestro”
Colman Domingo — “Rustin”
Paul Giamatti — “The Holdovers”
Cillian Murphy — “Oppenheimer”
Jeffrey Wright — “American Fiction”
I’ve held onto the idea that even with my personal choices on who I would have nominated, I would not be upset by any of these actors winning the Oscar. It’s a strong category but also one that has seemingly been settled. As much as it’s nice to see Giamatti back in the race, Murphy has the benefit of being in one of the most-seen films of the year and winning the major awards that put him on track to win. Taking home the BAFTA and a Globe doesn’t hurt, but the SAG award seemingly seals the deal. If the actor’s branch has ultimately sided with Murphy, there’s little reason to think the destroyer of worlds is not the victor here.
Could Win: Yeah, Giamatti is still right there, nipping at his heels.
I Would Have Nominated: Koji Yakusho, Perfect Days / Jamie Foxx, The Burial
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening — “Nyad”
Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Sandra Hüller — “Anatomy of a Fall”
Carey Mulligan — “Maestro”
Emma Stone — “Poor Things”
While I’m not big on conceding that politics are ultimately helping me determine which performer comes out on top, it helps that Lily Gladstone is among the excellent performers listed, and she has the precursor awards to back it up. While Stone is well-liked and a previous winner, and Hüller has a lot of international support, Gladstone has picked up SAG, which doesn’t hurt. Also not hurting – the chance for the Academy to crown the first Native American woman with a Best Actress statue.
Could Win: This is a neck-and-neck race with Stone, who has BAFT and CCA, along with the Oscar cred to compete.
I Would Have Nominated: Teyona Taylor, A Thousand and One
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown — “American Fiction”
Robert De Niro – “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Robert Downey Jr. — “Oppenheimer”
Ryan Gosling — “Barbie”
Mark Ruffalo — “Poor Things”
Getting back to the locks of the night, there’s little to suggest that Downey Jr. won’t be both Iron Man and Oscar winner by the night's end. Having won all the major awards and having the industry looking at him as if he not only straightened himself out (multiple decades ago at this point) but “rid” himself of the Marvel movies, much like Thanos, this feels inevitable.
Could Win: I suppose it’s Gosling, but remember that he’s already lost almost everything Downey has won over him.
I Would Have Nominated: Luis Guzman, Story Ave
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt — “Oppenheimer”
Danielle Brooks — “The Color Purple”
America Ferrera – “Barbie”
Jodie Foster — “Nyad”
Da’Vine Joy Randolph — “The Holdovers”
One of the year's best performances has swept through every other award ceremony, including SAG. There’s no further insight necessary at this point. It’s the most locked-up category of the night.
Could Win: If the Academy loves Oppenheimer THAT much, Blunt maybe…I guess.
I Would Have Nominated: Penelope Cruz, Ferrari / Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“American Fiction,” written for the screen by Cord Jefferson
“Barbie,” written by Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach
“Oppenheimer,” written for the screen by Christopher Nolan
“Poor Things,” screenplay by Tony McNamara
“The Zone of Interest,” written by Jonathan Glazer
A difficult bet to make here, as the award would seemingly be more in line with Oppenheimer in the event of a true streak. However, American Fiction has won numerous awards over Nolan’s film. Does it help that American Fiction is a movie about a writer with relevant themes regarding Hollywood? Probably doesn’t hurt in the eyes of the voter. A tricky bet, but I’m leaning on Cord Jefferson’s debut feature getting one key award that best reflects what it has to offer.
Could Win: Oppenheimer is also a favorite for good reason, given the massive book it managed to adapt into a huge blockbuster.
I Would Have Nominated: Origin / Killers of the Flower Moon
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Anatomy of a Fall,” screenplay by Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
“The Holdovers,” written by David Hemingson
“Maestro,” written by Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer
“May December,” screenplay by Samy Burch; story by Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik
“Past Lives,” written by Celine Song
There was a point when this could have been a much harder category to predict. However, with Barbie (appropriately) out of this category and into Adapted, it may come down to three good choices. Still, my bet is on Triet and Harari’s work on Anatomy of a Fall. Having won the most precursor awards leading up to the Oscars, it just adds up as a good enough reason to see the film find its way toward one win on the night.
Could Win: Past Lives and (moreso) The Holdovers both have good cause to emerge victorious, as all three frontrunners have their share of fans in different circles.
I Would Have Nominated: Asteroid City / Rye Lane
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
“Io Capitano” (Italy)
“Perfect Days” (Japan)
“Society of the Snow” (Spain)
“The Teachers’ Lounge” (Germany)
“The Zone of Interest” (United Kingdom)
Since France made the insane decision not to nominate Palme d’Or-winner Anatomy of a Fall as its submission (and ended up missing out altogether), there’s no real competition here. This may be one of the better lineups for International Film nominees I’ve seen in a bit, but The Zone of Interest is the most nominated film of the five, including Best Picture and Director. There’s no reason not to believe Glazer’s film will not triumph here.
Could Win: Society of the Snow is the only other film nominated for another award.
I Would Have Nominated: If Japan didn’t choose Perfect Days, obviously my head is at Godzilla Minus One or The Boy and the Heron. Playing by the rules, Afire.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“The Boy and the Heron”
“Elemental”
“Nimona”
“Robot Dreams”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
While it’s tough to be all, “Miyazaki, you need to sit this one out,” that’s where I am when it comes to my favorite film of 2023, potentially winning in its only category. Luckily, I have plenty of good stats on my side. While both Spidey and The Boy and the Heron have won their share of awards, Across the Spider-Verse simply has more, and possibly more goodwill, given its blockbuster status that goes along with its high praise. Are we truly past “voters don’t pay enough attention and default vote for Pixar?” I want to think so, but with the first Spider-Verse film already being a winner and this being a “Part 1,” I wonder if that affects how the voters really feel. A closer call, but I’m still trusting my heart.
Could Win: The Boy and the Heron is a terrific film and the latest “final film” from Miyazaki, meaning he could win his second Oscar here, following Spirited Away over 20 years ago.
I Would Have Nominated: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
“Bobi Wine: The People’s President”
“The Eternal Memory”
“Four Daughters”
“To Kill a Tiger”
“20 Days in Mariupol”
Not to be morbid, but while this can be an erratic category, you can often narrow down the Documentary winner to which film is focused on subjects such as the Holocaust, Syrian refugees, and other similar topics. For this category, DGA winner 20 Days in Mariupol is looking at the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and currently sits as a frontrunner in this category not too long after the murder of Alexei Navalny (the subject of last year’s winner for this award). A sad state of affairs, but that’s how the standings look.
Could Win: The very good Bobi Wine: The People’s President was nominated for a DGA and has won awards in its own right.
I Would Have Nominated: American Symphony
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“The Fire Inside” from “Flamin’ Hot,” music and lyrics by Diane Warren
“I’m Just Ken” from “Barbie,” music and lyrics by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
“It Never Went Away” from “American Symphony,” music and lyrics by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from “Killers of the Flower Moon,” music and lyrics by Scott George
“What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie,” music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
Spoilers for what’s to come, but there’s a good chance this may be the only area where Barbie wins on Oscar night. With two songs, some could say it may cancel out the film’s chances, but there’s not nearly enough enthusiasm for the other nominees (Nolan must be really kicking himself for not getting Oppy and Einstein to sing a power ballad at the end of Oppenheimer to really bring it home). So, between the two toy movie songs, while “I’m Just Ken” is super fun (not unlike “Nattu Nattu” from last year), “What Was I Made For” has won more awards already, features previous Oscar winners Eilish and O’Connell putting in the work, and is the more integral song as far as the movie it represents. Perhaps closer than I’ve made it seem, but it feels like the right call.
Could Win: “I’m Just Ken” is right there looking to lock it up after Ryan Gosling performs it live on stage.
I Would Have Nominated: “Dear Alien (Who Art In Heaven),” Asteroid City
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“American Fiction” – Laura Karpman
“Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” – John Williams
“Killers of the Flower Moon” – Robbie Robertson
“Oppenheimer” – Ludwig Göransson
“Poor Things” – Jerskin Fendrix
I was hoping for a bit more creativity in this category, but it has made it all the easier to predict, as Oppenheimer has won all the major awards leading up to Oscar. Göransson is about to go home with another statue.
Could Win: The late Robbie Robertson and his frequent collaborations with Scorsese would garner some Academy love here, but that’s unlikely.
I Would Have Nominated: A Thousand and One / Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
BEST FILM EDITING
“Anatomy of a Fall” – Laurent Sénéchal
“The Holdovers” – Kevin Tent
“Killers of the Flower Moon” – Thelma Schoonmaker
“Oppenheimer” – Jennifer Lame
“Poor Things” – Yorgos Mavropsaridis
“Go with the action movie” is usually my call here, but there is not one to pick this time around (and Top Gun: Maverick was outdone by …well, another action movie, Everything Everywhere All At Once, last year). With that said, Lame helped turn a 3-hour biopic into a massive blockbuster, which does inform how things are lining up when considering what can win this category. She’s also already won BAFTA, ACE, and CCA, which further helps this prediction speak for itself.
Could Win: Anatomy of a Fall’s narrative relies on key moments benefited by terrific editing choices.
I Would Have Nominated: The Killer / Ferrari
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
“El Conde” – Edward Lachman
“Killers of the Flower Moon” – Rodrigo Prieto
“Maestro” – Matthew Libatique
“Oppenheimer” – Hoyte van Hoytema
“Poor Things” – Robbie Ryan
Another category where my confidence is very strong, Nolan’s continued collaboration with Hoytema to help him deliver huge movies shot on a massive scale using innovative techniques is affording Oppenheimer another opportunity to collect a golden statue. With plenty of accolades already, there’s little reason not to think of a film with so much visual variety when it comes to atomic bombs and scientists talking in rooms.
Could Win: However, Robbie Ryan’s approach to Poor Things was “most Cinematography,” which often prevails when it’s down to the wire (so, not in this case).
I Would Have Nominated: Past Lives
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
“Barbie” – production design: Sarah Greenwood; set decoration: Katie Spencer
“Killers of the Flower Moon” – production design: Jack Fisk; set decoration: Adam Willis
“Napoleon” – production design: Arthur Max; set decoration: Elli Griff
“Oppenheimer” – production design: Ruth De Jong; set decoration: Claire Kaufman
“Poor Things” – production design: James Price and Shona Heath; set decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek
This is a very close race, as both Poor Things and Barbie have good reasons to win. Both have won various precursor awards. The unique look of both films will undoubtedly inform the voters regarding how they stack up compared to the rest. That said, period film tends to win out in this category over something more modern. Or maybe it will just be a giant Oppenheimer sweep, and none of this matters.
Could Win: Barbie has much of the same momentum to pull this off.
I Would Have Nominated: Asteroid City
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
“Barbie” – Jacqueline Durran
“Killers of the Flower Moon” – Jacqueline West
“Napoleon” – Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
“Oppenheimer” – Ellen Mirojnick
“Poor Things” – Holly Waddington
Similar to the Production Design category, it’s basically about putting up or shutting up, as it makes sense to link these two together. With that said, there’s a pretty strong argument for both Barbie and Poor Things, so it’s not at all simple to say this is an easy choice. However, I’m giving an edge to the period film that is also fantastical, as opposed to the one that is just fantastical. Will that pay off? We’ll see.
Could Win: Barbie is a movie partially built around all the costumes the characters wear throughout, and all the fun and primary colors on display may make it hard to go against.
I Would Have Nominated: Bottoms / Priscilla
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Golda” – Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue
“Maestro” – Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell
“Oppenheimer” – Luisa Abel
“Poor Things” – Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston
“Society of the Snow” – Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé
This could be either easier or harder than I’m making it seem. On the one hand, Poor Things has plenty in its favor by being up for so many awards and having multiple characters with obvious makeup and hairstyling to work with, particularly Willem Dafoe, who’s not nominated. On the other hand, Maestro is primarily about Bradley Cooper’s transformation into Leonard Bernstein, and he’s up for Best Actor. As the only area Maestro is likely to succeed, I think the film is going to win this one, say it with me: by a nose.
Could Win: Poor Things has a lot going on visually, which includes what’s taking place in this category in a major way.
I Would Have Nominated: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 / The Last Voyage of the Demeter
BEST SOUND
“The Creator” – Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
“Maestro” – Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
“Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” – Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris
Burdon and Mark Taylor
“Oppenheimer” – Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell
“The Zone of Interest” – Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn
Honestly, it feels more like a dream scenario that The Zone of Interest could win this, as opposed to a probable threat to Oppenheimer. Nolan’s film has too much momentum in these areas, even when counting Zone’s BAFTA win. So, while I stick firmly with my choice, here’s a fun fact – this is the first time any of the Mission: Impossible films have been nominated for anything by the Oscars. As big, loud movies with lots of special effects, sound, and goodwill, does that mean anything? If this was Mission: Difficult, I would already know the answer.
Could Win: The Zone of Interest has an innovative use of sound that is key to the film’s success.
I Would Have Nominated: Talk To Me / The Killer
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
“The Creator” – Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould
“Godzilla Minus One” – Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” – Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek
“Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” – Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould
“Napoleon” – Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould
Listen, there are many good reasons why The Creator will win this award. That said, speaking as one who liked The Creator a lot…not many people saw it. Meanwhile, the latest entry in a historic franchise (70 years and still going) is up for an Oscar thanks to incredible goodwill, great reviews, and strong box office results. Is this purely a passion pick compared to all the others? Yes. Do I think Godzilla Minus One has a legitimate shot at winning? Also, yes. Make it happen!
Could Win: The Creator won plenty of industry awards.
I Would Have Nominated: Society of the Snow / M3GAN
BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
“The After”
“Invincible”
“Knight of Fortune”
“Red, White and Blue”
“The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar”
A major determiner of who will come out on top in their Oscar ballot contests, it’s never easy to predict the outcomes in the short categories (especially when multiple nominees feature movie stars). Live-action may be the closest to being predictable, as it’s hard to think the Academy won’t take the opportunity to finally award Wes Anderson an Oscar thanks to his efforts in delivering several terrific Roald Dahl adaptations in the form of clever short films readily available to watch on Netflix.
Could Win: Red, White, and Blue is also right there and features a heavy focus on women’s rights, which could easily play in the selection process.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
“Letter to a Pig”
“Ninety-Five Senses”
“Our Uniform”
“Pachyderme”
“War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko”
Just to put it out there: remember when animated shorts were fun? Aside from not being a great batch of shorts, they are also largely depressing, and more of a slog to get through than I’ve previously witnessed. So, with all that in mind, I can only stick with my principles – go with the one I found the most fun. That would be Ninety-Five Senses, which also happens to be the only Jared Hess film I’ve ever liked (sorry, Napoleon Dynamite fans).
Could Win: I don’t like thinking about it, but War Is Over! is so sickly saccharine that it could win an Oscar. Not being a fan of it at all (the use of a John Lennon song at the end made me throw my hands up in the air), I would rather have any other victor.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
“The ABCs of Book Banning”
“The Barber of Little Rock”
“Island in Between”
“The Last Repair Shop”
“Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó”
Again, it’s a bit up in the air, so I just have to focus on which of the docs has the most important message it’s trying to share. Two of them are focused on ensuring children are being considered in various forms of education. One is a literal opposition against actions that sync up certain parties with tactics upheld by fascists and the Third Reich. I found The ABCs of Book Banning the most affecting.
Could Win: The Last Repair Shop wants to keep up awareness for music education. A noble effort for sure.
***
That will do it for my predictions. The Academy Awards will be held on Sunday, March 10, 2024, with Jimmy Kimmel returning as the only person who says yes to the gig to ensure a safe, blandly entertaining monologue. That said, there will be predictions and results podcasts to come!