97th Academy Awards: Predictions and Insight

With only a few guaranteed locks, is this one of the more exciting Oscar races in some time?

Well, the award season was slightly shorter this year, but it still took a while for us to get to this point, and plenty of shakeups, controversies, and other wacky things happened along the way. That said, “Hollywood’s Biggest Night” is nearly upon us, as we’ll see what happens at the 97th Academy Awards on Sunday, March 2. Plus, I’m more in line with embracing what’s to come from a presentation standpoint, as Conan O’Brian is a host I can easily get behind. On top of that, despite some categories that feel pretty safe, we’ve been all over the place regarding which films may walk out on top. Naturally, plenty of terrific and popular movies are up for awards, but now it’s time to break it down. So, I have once again put together this post covering all my predictions, complete with the logic I've come up with behind each choice.

Best Picture

(Listed in order of preference - only for this category)

Nickel Boys
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Anora
The Substance
Conclave
I’m Still Here
Emilia Pérez
A Complete Unknown
Wicked

Despite winning the Palm d’Or at Cannes and arriving with a ton of buzz, it felt like Anora was lagging behind other notables for a good while. Then, sudden domination came when the film won DGA, PGA, Critics Choice, and WGA awards within a week. It may have missed out on BAFTA and the SAG ensemble, but for a race that’s been pretty questionable, it feels like things have locked in for Neon’s latest major acquisition to turn into a true Cinderella story.

Could Win: Early on, I would have thought Conclave was a surefire winner based on its quality and for being a film generally looked at by all as being the right kind of great (actors, story, themes). It picked up the SAG ensemble award, which certainly helps, and the numerous veteran actors involved give it plenty of esteem.

I Would Have Nominated: In a perfect world - Hundred of Beavers. Realistically - Sing Sing

Directing

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

Sean Baker is a self-proclaimed indie lifer, but that hasn’t stopped him from stepping up into the big leagues for this award season, giving great speeches, and having things turn up his way. While Brady Corbet seemed to have an early lead here, Baker winning DGA pretty much provides a clear landing for him to win an Oscar for his direction of Anora.

Could Win: Corbet won many precursor awards, including a BAFTA, meaning the race is not entirely locked for Baker.

I Would Have Nominated: RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys, Mike Cheslik for Hundreds of Beavers, Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two

Actor in a Leading Role

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Yes, this is going with a safer play, but it makes plenty of sense. Adrien Brody has been the frontrunner, and it’s easier to go with the odds-on-favorite as opposed to guessing a wild card may upset. It doesn’t hurt that this is a very strong category, but…Timothée Chalamet picked up a SAG award, has a couple of other recent hit films under his belt, and is bent on being a force to reckon with for years to come. Is that enough to put him over the top for an award now?

Could Win: Adrien Brody still probably makes the most sense.

I Would Have Nominated: Sebastian Stan for A Different Man, Keith Cupferer for Ghostlight, Andre Holland for Exhibiting Forgiveness

Actress in a Leading Role

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

Even with a BAFTA surprise and Indie Spirits love going to Madison, it feels like the Oscar narrative has been shaped around Moore pretty clearly, which is impressive for an actress who was an A-list star but never considered a prestige player. Right now, Moore sits here with numerous awards paving the way for an ultimate victory, establishing final dominance over her Substance counterpart.

Could Win: Mikey Madison is very close behind in this one.

I Would Have Nominated: Marianne Jean-Baptiste for Hard Truths, Juliette Gariépy for Red Rooms, Naomi Scott for Smile 2

Actor in a Supporting Role

Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

It's a strong category but one that also has a clear lock in it, as Culkin has been the big winner the entire time here. It would be a shock to see him not pick up an Oscar for his role in A Real Pain.

Could Win: No real point here, but Norton is just so lovely in A Complete Unknown, while Pearce gives a fantastic “big supporting performance” in The Brutalist.

I Would Have Nominated: Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing, Brian Tyree Henry for The Fire Inside, Adam Pearson for A Different Man

Actress in a Supporting Role

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

While many narratives surrounding Emilia Pérez have made the film controversial, Saldaña is excellent in it and has been winning plenty of awards leading up to the Oscars. It’s a smart play to root for her to win, though there’s a lot of room for an upset here.

Could Win: This could go a lot of ways, but perhaps the low-key goodwill for A Complete Unknown could lead to Barbaro coming out of nowhere for a surprise upset win.

I Would Have Nominated: Joan Chen for DiDi, Daniel Deadwyler for The Piano Lesson, Aunjanue Ellis-Tyalor for Nickel Boys

Adapted Screenplay

A Complete Unknown (Screenplay by James Mangold and Jay Cocks)
Conclave (Screenplay by Peter Straughan)
Emilia Pérez (Screenplay by Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius, and Nicolas Livecchi)
Nickel Boys (Screenplay by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes)
Sing Sing (Screenplay by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield)

Yes, a lot of this comes down to prioritizing the weight of precursor awards against the nominees, and in that regard, Conclave is right in line to pick up a win here. It’s a dialogue-heavy script with a well-conceived narrative, and many chances for various characters to shine in a way the Academy appreciates.

Could Win: Nickel Boys has many fans beyond me, and it’s also earned recognition for being a stellar adaptation of a Pulitzer Prize-winning novel.

I Would Have Nominated: Hit Man, The Piano Lesson, Dune: Part II

Original Screenplay

Anora (Written by Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (Written by Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold)
A Real Pain (Written by Jesse Eisenberg)
September 5 (Written by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David)
The Substance (Written by Coralie Fargeat)

Is Sean Baker being set up to go home with multiple statues in his arms? I think it’s going to be that kind of night. The WGA win certainly helps with this.

Could Win: Jesse Eisenberg’s screenplay for A Real Pain is a very fitting choice for this award as well, with plenty of acclaim having been received.

I Would Have Nominated: Hundreds of Beavers, Ghostlight, Hard Truths

International Feature Film

I’m Still Here (Brazil)
The Girl With the Needle (Denmark)
Emilia Pérez (France)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Flow (Latvia)

Earlier on, with the most nominations, it would have seemed like Emilia Pérez would be the default winner for this category. However, I’m Still Here is also a Best Picture nominee, has a more relevant story to dive into, and doesn’t have any controversy surrounding its narrative choices or leading star. It seems like the more likely play at this point.

Could Win: As much as I’d like to see The Girl with the Needle take it, the only other likely option is Emilia Pérez.

I Would Have Nominated: Red Rooms, All We Imagine As Light, Kneecap, Evil Does Not Exist

Animated Feature Film

Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot

The Wild Robot is a big favorite, but so is Flow. That said, the days of “pick Disney by default” could even suggest Inside Out 2 manages to take it. Still, DreamWorks has terrible luck with these, but it would appear things are working out in the favor of The Wild Robot this time around.

Could Win: Flow has many fans and has won plenty of awards as well. It would be a neat winner to see happen.

I Would Have Nominated: Piece By Piece, Look Back, Transformers One

Documentary Feature Film

Black Box Diaries (Shiori Ito, Eric Nyari, and Hanna Aqvilin)
No Other Land (Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal and Yuval Abraham)
Porcelain War (Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev, Aniela Sidorska and Paula DuPre’ Pesmen)
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (Johan Grimonprez, Daan Milius, and Rémi Grellety)
Sugarcane (Nominees to be determined)

The documentary branch tends to stray from the pack when it comes to what’s popular vs. what they end up choosing, although the favorites have done well in recent years. That said, while No Other Land is a critical favorite, not having a distributor certainly may have impacted its chance of being seen by more people. Meanwhile, Porcelain War is critically acclaimed and dealing with the war in Ukraine through art, which may align with what voters are willing to embrace.

Could Win: Maybe No Other Land finds the momentum it needs and lands the prize.

I Would Have Nominated: Daughters, Girls State, Will & Harper

Original Song

“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; Lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard)
“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (Music and Lyric by Diane Warren)
“Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (Music and Lyric by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada)
“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (Music and Lyric by Camille and Clément Ducol)
“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (Music and Lyric by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt and Bernie Taupin)

Well, since we’re waiting next year for an original song from Wicked, it seems like Emilia Pérez is bound to win this category with one of the more vibrant numbers. Honestly, this is just not that exciting of a category this year, and it doesn’t help that the songs won’t be performed live at the ceremony.

Could Win: Maybe the Academy finally gives in and lets Diane Warren win one…

I Would Have Nominated: “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece, “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper, “Jean Kayak and His Acme Applejack” from Hundreds of Beavers, “My Stranger” from Your Monster, “New Brain” from Smile 2

Original Score

The Brutalist (Daniel Blumberg)
Conclave (Volker Bertelmann)
Emilia Pérez (Clément Ducol and Camille)
Wicked (John Powell and Stephen Schwartz)
The Wild Robot (Kris Bowers)

This feels like one of two key categories where The Brutalist should win, as it arrives out the gate with what already feels like an iconic sound. Blumberg is new to the category but picked up a BAFTA already. I won’t be surprised to see that carry forward.

Could Win: Conclave composer Volker Bertelmann just won for All Quiet on the Western Front and could return for a second win again, given how essential his score is to the Vatican thriller.

I Would Have Nominated: Challengers (no question), Evil Does Not Exist, The Girl with the Needle, Loves Lies Bleeding

Cinematography

The Brutalist (Lol Crawley)
Dune: Part Two (Greig Fraser)
Emilia Pérez (Paul Guilhaume)
Maria (Ed Lachman)
Nosferatu (Jarin Blaschke)

The cinematography is such a striking component of the relatively low-budgeted Brutalist, as the film looks epic, and Lol Crawley (who won the BAFTA) accomplishes so much with what the film aims to show off. It’s the other category I feel this movie owns.

Could Win: The Academy did bestow four nominations for Nosferatu, a film that lives and breaths on its stark atmosphere.

I Would Have Nominated: Nickel Boys (this year’s biggest omission), The Girl with the Needle, Blitz, Civil War

Film Editing

Anora (Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (David Jancso)
Conclave (Nick Emerson)
Emilia Pérez (Juliette Welfling)
Wicked (Myron Kerstein)

Nick Emerson won the BAFTA, and directors rarely win an editing award, probably leaving Best Picture frontrunner Anora out. I’d usually go with an action film if it’s not a Best Picture contender in the lead, but that’s not an option here. So, a Vatican thriller is the next best thing in this scenario.

Could Win: Or Anora has just that much momentum and also pulls off the win here.

I Would Have Nominated: Nickel Boys, Dune: Part Two, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Makeup and Hairstyling

A Different Man (Mike Marino, David Presto, and Crystal Jurado)
Emilia Pérez (Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini)
Nosferatu (David White, Traci Loader, and Suzanne Stokes-Munton)
The Substance (Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli)
Wicked (Frances Hannon, Laura Blount, and Sarah Nuth)

If Demi Moore is the presumed Best Actress, then surely one must reward the wild makeup effects that went with adding so much to her on a visual front. Being the gross body horror movie AND a Hollywood satire could have ups and downs, but this feels right.

Could Win: Wicked could take flight in these below-the-line categories for being the lightest of the films presented.

I Would have Nominated: Dune: Part Two, Terrifier 3, Megalopolis, Sasquatch Sunset

Costume Design

A Complete Unknown (Arianne Phillips)
Conclave (Lisy Christl)
Gladiator II (Janty Yates and Dave Crossman)
Nosferatu (Linda Muir)
Wicked (Paul Tazewell)

There are two films here that are both of a certain period and fantastical, which is a winning combo. Wicked is the more audience-friendly feature of those two, and it bursts with color and imagination to bring a crowd-pleasing tale to life. I can see so much goodwill going toward this pick (and it’s already won plenty of awards).

Could Win: Nosferatu is the other clear option and also picked up the CDG win. Authentic style mixed with the vampire element makes it a possible spoiler.

I Would Have Nominated: Hundreds of Beavers, The Fall Guy, Megalopolis, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Production Design

The Brutalist (Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia)
Conclave (Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter)
Dune: Part Two (Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau)
Nosferatu (Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová)
Wicked (Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales)

Wicked feels like another good bet, having won BAFTA and Critics Choice. Massive sets, original and familiar designs to fill out the land of Oz, and big choices like an entire train design give it lots to consider.

Could Win: The Brutalist had to convince audiences that a film of this budget size could construct such a large building at its center that we get to visit.

I Would Have Nominated: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Exhibiting Forgiveness, Late Night with the Devil, Oddity, The Piano Lesson

Sound

A Complete Unknown (Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey, and David Giammarco)
Dune: Part Two (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill)
Emilia Pérez (Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz and Niels Barletta)
Wicked (Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson, and John Marquis)
The Wild Robot (Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo, and Leff Lefferts)

Dune went even harder with its sequel, which is full of bombast, and even in a stacked category, I feel as though its early wins and the goodwill that comes with this series will allow the spice to flow here.

Could Win: Bob Dylan does go metal, and the sound arrangements are key to highlighting the skills of the performers and what A Complete Unknown is aiming for.

I Would Have Nominated: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Better Man, Blitz

Visual Effects

Alien: Romulus (Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin and Shane Mahan)
Better Man (Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs)
Dune: Part Two (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, and Gerd Nefzer)
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke)
Wicked (Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk, and Paul Corbould)

Two Best Picture nominees are in the category, which narrows things down. One looks clearly better than the other, and that is Dune: Part Two, which brings these otherworldly planets to life, along with the creatures that inhabit them, the cool technology, and other elements combining CG and practical visuals to pull off.

Could Win: The biggest shame is not seeing any of the new Planet of the Apes films pull off a win when they all look spectacular. Maybe things could change this year.

I Would Have Nominated: Hundreds of Beavers, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Blitz, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Live-Action Short Film

A Lien (Sam Cutler-Kreutz and David Cutler-Kreutz)
Anuja (Adam J. Graves and Suchitra Mattai)
I’m Not a Robot (Victoria Warmerdam and Trent)
The Last Ranger (Cindy Lee and Darwin Shaw)
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent (Nebojša Slijepčević and Danijel Pek)

There’s never much logic in these categories, but you can sure win some Oscar pools if you play these right. While one can often go with the more socially relevant pick (A Lien feels like the closest thing to a frontrunner in that sense), there’s also the tendency to lean on the one that has more of a light-hearted position to take. Perhaps that sets the stage for Anuja, which is available on Netflix, but The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent has won its share of awards already.

Animated Short Film

Beautiful Men (Nicolas Keppens and Brecht Van Elslande)
In the Shadow of the Cypress (Shirin Sohani and Hossein Molayemi)
Magic Candies (Daisuke Nishio and Takashi Washio)
Wander to Wonder (Nina Gantz and Stienette Bosklopper)
Yuck! (Loïc Espuche and Juliette Marquet)

Similarly, does the more emotionally impactful film win this one out, or is it the one that feels the most slight? I’m not sure, but I really like In the Shadow of the Cypress,

Documentary Short Film

Death by Numbers (Kim A. Snyder and Janique L. Robillard)
I Am Ready, Warden (Smriti Mundhra and Maya Gnyp)
Incident (Bill Morrison and Jamie Kalven)
Instruments of a Beating Heart (Ema Ryan Yamazaki and Eric Nyari)
The Only Girl in the Orchestra (Molly O’Brien and Lisa Remington)

I’ve seen Incident, which is terrific and one of the more creative in terms of filmmaking, but it feels like I Am Ready, Warden (which I have also seen) and The Only Girl in the Orchestra are the bigger competitors here. Once again, I’m going with the more hopeful of the two, plus films on Netflix have done well in this category.

***

That will do it for my predictions. We’ll have an Out Now with Aaron and Abe Oscar-themed episodes, including more predictions and a post-show recap. The 97th Academy Awards will be held on Sunday, March 2, with Conan O’Brien taking on hosting duties for the ceremony. I’m predicting laughs!