98th Academy Awards: Predictions and Insight
Refreshingly, this is a very close race between a few key players, and you love to see it!
It’s mid-March, which feels like way too far into the year to be still focused on award season, and yet here we are. As usual, there have been ups and downs, non-controversies, and shifts in popularity leading up to all of this. That said, “Hollywood’s Biggest Night” is nearly upon us, as we’ll see what happens at the 98th Academy Awards on Sunday, March 15. At the very least, Conan O’Brien is back as host, which keeps me hopeful for what he plans to bring to the ceremony. Hopefully, the planned montages and other celebratory aspects will be as worthwhile. With all of this in mind, this year has seen some of the tightest races between films in some time, which is exciting, but now it’s time to break it down. So, I have a post here covering all my Oscar predictions, complete with the logic behind each choice.
Best Picture
(Listed in order of preference - only for this category)
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Marty Supreme
Train Dreams
Frankenstein
Bugonia
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
F1
Hamnet
I could list all the awards it has won, while also noting which film has won even more. All of this speaks to the old saying of “no film has ever done ____, ____, and ____, and lost,” and yet here we are. Perhaps I just have a feeling. After all, Sinners spent a year being doubted at so many turns, only to come around and defy the expectations of some and show just how well it managed to connect.
Could Win: Naturally, if Sinners doesn’t come through, then we have the much safer bet, which is One Battle After Another. It has so many other awards and universal praise. It’s a tough one to go against.
I Would Have Nominated: If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Directing
Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler – Sinners
I never liked the “it’s his time” logic of Oscar voting. Still, beyond being a celebrated director for 30 years and having won so many awards leading up to this point, including the DGA, it really does seem like PTA is finally going to take home a trophy.
Could Win: If it’s a big night for Sinners, then perhaps it’s actually time to see Coogler take home the trophy.
I Would Have Nominated: Mary Bronstein - If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Jafar Panahi - It Was Just An Accident, Kleber Mendoca Filho - The Secret Agent
Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme as Marty Mauser
Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another as Bob Ferguson
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon as Lorenz Hart
Michael B. Jordan – Sinners as Elijah “Smoke” Moore / Elias “Stack” Moore
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent as Armando Solimões / Marcelo Alves / Fernando Solimões
I’m really all over the place on Best Actor, as there’s a good argument for each contender in one of the strongest recent lineups for this category. With that said, perhaps a love for Sinners, combined with effort shown in playing twin characters, will ultimately work in his favor, aligning with his recent SAG win, and Michael B. Jordan takes home the prize.
Could Win: Maybe Chalamet was due after all. It’s a great performance, and not being afraid to put himself out there in terms of expressing his desire to win may actually pay off.
I Would Have Nominated: Abou Songsre - Souleymane’s Story, Byung-hun Lee - No Other Choice, Jessie Plemmons - Bugonia
Actress in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet as Agnes Shakespeare
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You as Linda
Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue as Claire Sardina
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value as Nora Borg
Emma Stone – Bugonia as Michelle Fuller
The one major lock in all of the acting categories. Jessie Buckley seems to be the hands-down choice as far as anyone’s concerned, so no real reason to bet against her.
Could Win: Rose Byrne gave my favorite performance of last year and has won her share of acclaim. If there were any room for an upset, I’d look here (unless Hudson fans unite).
I Would Have Nominated: Amanda Seyfried - The Testament of Ann Lee, Eva Victor - Sorry, Baby, Tessa Thompson - Hedda
Actor in a Supporting Role
Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another as Sensei Sergio St. Carlos
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein as The Creature
Delroy Lindo – Sinners as Delta Slim
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another as Col. Steven J. Lockjaw
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value as Gustav Borg
It would give the veteran actor a third Oscar, but that comes from having turned in terrific work for multiple decades. Sean Penn seems poised to win once again, but this is a fun category with a lot of potential.
Could Win: Seemingly willed onto the board, could Delroy Lindo go the distance and actually win, despite no other precursors beyond general enthusiasm?
I Would Have Nominated: David Jonsson - The Long Walk, John Leguizamo - Bob Trevino Likes It, William H. Macy - Train Dreams
Actress in a Supporting Role
Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value as Rachel Kemp
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value as Agnes Borg Pettersen
Amy Madigan – Weapons as Aunt Gladys
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners as Annie
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another as Perfidia Beverly Hills
Madigan has proven popular enough to push beyond genre boundaries and earn a SAG Award and a win with CCA for her efforts.
Could Win: Maybe I just want this to happen too much to let it go, but as the category is hard to nail down, I’d really love to see Teyana Taylor take home the prize.
I Would Have Nominated: Glenn Close - Wake Up Dead Man, Marisa Abela - Black Bag, Nina Hoss - Hedda
Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia – Will Tracy; based on the film Save the Green Planet! by Jang Joon-hwan
Frankenstein – Guillermo del Toro; based on the novel by Mary Shelley
Hamnet – Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell; based on the novel by Maggie O’Farrell
One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson; based on the novel Vineland by Thomas Pynchon
Train Dreams – Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar; based on the novella by Denis Johnson
One thing seems certain - PTA is going home with at least one Oscar, and the WGA seems to have assured us that this will be one of them.
Could Win: Hamnet was a frontrunner early on and certainly feels like the one film that would spoil things, if possible.
I Would Have Nominated: 28 Years Later, Wake Up Dead Man, Superman, No Other Choice
Original Screenplay
Blue Moon – Robert Kaplow
It Was Just an Accident – Jafar Panahi; in collaboration with Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, and Mehdi Mahmoudian
Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
Sentimental Value – Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
Sinners – Ryan Coogler
It does feel as though the two films deadlocked for Best Picture also have the screenplay locked up.
Could Win: Sentimental Value’s strong turnout for nominations suggests it has plenty of fans as well, and a screenplay win would be a great acknowledgement.
I Would Have Nominated: Black Bag, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just An Accident, Sorry, Baby
International Feature Film
It Was Just an Accident (France)
The Secret Agent (Brazil)
Sentimental Value (Norway)
Sirāt (Spain)
The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
It’s refreshing not to feel as certain, given the heavier presence of international films in the Best Picture category (even on the long list). However, I’d still side with the film that has earned the most recognition, Sentimental Value.
Could Win: Of course, The Secret Agent isn’t exactly phoning it in either, and if voters don’t find aspects of it too out there for them, it has a fair shot.
I Would Have Nominated: Night Call, On Becoming Guinea Fowl, Souleymane’s Story
Animated Feature Film
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amelie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
While one film was certainly a box office juggernaut, one cannot argue with how popular KPop Demon Hunters had become last year, thanks to its hot soundtrack, and feeling like something refreshing.
Could Win: Zootopia 2 was a major hit in all respects as well, and Disney tends to do well here.
I Would Have Nominated: The Bad Guys 2, Boys Go To Jupiter, Ne Zha 2
Documentary Feature Film
The Alabama Solution – Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman
Come See Me in the Good Light – Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro, and Stef Willen
Cutting Through Rocks – Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni
Mr. Nobody Against Putin – David Borenstein, Pavel Talankin, Helle Faber, and Alžběta Karásková
The Perfect Neighbor – Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu, and Sam Bisbee
The Perfect Neighbor has become the favorite for this category, but even then, the documentary branch sure likes to play by its own rules.
Could Win: Mr. Nobody Against Putin has a certain relevance that could help it.
I Would Have Nominated: Grand Theft Hamlet, Orwell 2+2 = 5
Original Song
“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless – Music and lyrics by Diane Warren
“Golden“ from KPop Demon Hunters – Music and lyrics by Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, 24, Ido, and Teddy Park
“I Lied to You“ from Sinners – Music and lyrics by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Göransson
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi! – Music and lyrics by Nicholas Pike
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams – Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; lyrics by Nick Cave
“Golden” has dominated this category and has been a major hit in mainstream culture. Feels like a hard one to beat.
Could Win: “I Like to You” comes as a package with one of the most visually astounding scenes from any film last year.
I Would Have Nominated: “Highest 2 Lowest” - Highest 2 Lowest, “Zoo” - Zootopia 2, “Jane Doe” - Chainsaw Man: The Movie
Original Score
Bugonia – Jerskin Fendrix
Frankenstein – Alexandre Desplat
Hamnet – Max Richter
One Battle After Another – Jonny Greenwood
Sinners – Ludwig Göransson
The way music plays into the film’s themes, let alone the main story, suggests Sinners is poised to win this category. Precursor awards help, and the Academy does seem to be a fan of Göransson.
Could Win: It feels like it’s always a toss-up as to whether Greenwood gets disqualified, but here he is with a unique score in a major player as well.
I Would Have Nominated: 28 Years Later, Sirāt, Tron: Ares, Fantastic Four: First Steps, Resurrection
Cinematography
Frankenstein – Dan Laustsen
Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji
One Battle After Another – Michael Bauman
Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Train Dreams – Adolpho Veloso
Looking at One Battle After Another here. Along with its cinematographer awards, there’s something about the spectacle based around the use of VistaVision and how terrific that final chase sequence plays on a huge IMAX screen.
Could Win: Sinners also used VistaVision and formats to allow the film to shine on huge theater screens, and it’s a gorgeous film that could also pick up an award for its visual efforts.
I Would Have Nominated: 28 Years Later, No Other Choice
Film Editing
F1 – Stephen Mirrione
Marty Supreme – Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
One Battle After Another – Andy Jurgensen
Sentimental Value – Olivier Bugge Coutté
Sinners – Michael P. Shawver
Having taken the ACE, that seemingly ensures things in this race. One Battle After Another is an epic film that moves briskly and balances multiple storylines and other elements with ease.
Could Win: I don’t want to count out Sinners, but the action of F1 is hugely dependent on its editing, helping to bring everything to a life full of excitement.
I Would Have Nominated: 28 Years Later, Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Casting
Hamnet – Nina Gold
Marty Supreme – Jennifer Venditti
One Battle After Another – Cassandra Kulukundis
The Secret Agent – Gabriel Domingues
Sinners – Francine Maisler
What are we to make of this newest category? Well, Sinners’ win for Best SAG Ensemble seems like a good way to figure out where things are headed with this one.
Could Win: Having The Secret Agent in this category suggests the Academy was at least paying attention, as this film may lack fancy stars but gains points for authentic casting choices.
I Would Have Nominated: Eephus, The Long Walk, Black Bag, Eddington
Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein – Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey
Kokuho – Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, and Tadashi Nishimatsu
Sinners – Ken Diaz, Mike Fntaine, and Shounika Terry
The Smashing Machine – Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin, and Bjoern Rehbein
The Ugly Stepsister – Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
Guillermo del Toro’s technical elements behind his Frankenstein are top-notch, and these are areas for the film to shine, thanks to what’s happening with the Creature, among other aspects.
Could Win: Sinners does give us period hairstyles, new vampire designs, and gore for our troubles.
I Would have Nominated: 28 Years Later, Predator: Badlands, The Monkey
Costume Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash – Deborah L. Scott
Frankenstein – Kate Hawley
Hamnet – Malgosia Turzanska
Marty Supreme – Miyako Bellizzi
Sinners – Ruth E. Carter
Another technical award geared toward Frankenstein.
Could Win: If it’s a sweeping night for Sinners, it could come through and claim this one as well.
I Would Have Nominated: On Becoming Guinea Fowl, Superman, Reflection of a Dead Diamond
Production Design
Frankenstein – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
Hamnet – Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
Marty Supreme – Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
One Battle After Another – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
Sinners – Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne
This seems like the award Frankenstein was reanimated to win.
Could Win: Again, Sinners is right behind, with its key location a major highlight.
I Would Have Nominated: The Phoenician Scheme, Reflection in a Dead Diamond
Sound
F1 – Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, and Juan Peralta
Frankenstein – Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke, and Brad Zoern
One Battle After Another – José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio, and Tony Villaflor
Sinners – Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, and Steve Boeddeker
Sirāt – Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas, and Yasmina Praderas
F1 picked up some key sound wins to put it over the top, and while there are some action-adjacent competitors, this is both a film full of sound-fueled racing action and a Best Picture nominee.
Could Win: I’d be over the moon if Sirāt came out of nowhere and took this one.
I Would Have Nominated: Avatar: Fire & Ash, Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning, Tron: Ares
Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash – Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett
F1 – Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington, and Keith Dawson
Jurassic World Rebirth – David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, and Neil Corbould
The Lost Bus – Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, and Brandon K. McLaughlin
Sinners – Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter, and Donnie Dean
You wonder if being left out of the Best Picture category could affect the no-brainer pick for this category, given all the work that goes into one of these Avatar movies. Still, then you remember that Avatar is pushing boundaries like no other.
Could Win: Creating twins and making it look seamless is very impressive, as is everything else Sinners has to offer in visual effects.
I Would Have Nominated: Predator: Badlands, Mickey 17, Sketch
Live-Action Short Film
Butcher’s Stain – Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi
A Friend of Dorothy – Lee Knight and James Dean
Jane Austen’s Period Drama – Julia Aks and Steve Pinder
The Singers – Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
Two People Exchanging Saliva – Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata
As usual, there’s no real prevailing logic that will have this make any more sense, so I’m going with the weird one. Saliva it is!
Animated Short Film
Butterfly – Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens
Forevergreen – Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears
The Girl Who Cried Pearls – Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
Retirement Plan – John Kelly and Andrew Freedman
The Three Sisters – Konstantin Bronzit
The different entries here hit all the hallmarks - slight, socially important, technically amazing. So which one will the Academy favor? I’m going with the “important” one, which I quite liked.
Documentary Short Film
All the Empty Rooms – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud – Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo
Children No More: “Were and Are Gone” – Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins
The Devil Is Busy – Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir
Perfectly a Strangeness – Alison McAlpine
This wasn’t the most oppressive set of documentary shorts for a change, even if they still were all pretty dramatic. That being said, All the Empty Rooms appears to be the clear frontrunner.
***
That will do it for my predictions. We’ll have an Out Now with Aaron and Abe Oscar-themed episodes, including more predictions and a post-show recap soon enough. The 98th Academy Awards will be held on Sunday, March 15, with Conan O’Brien returning to take on hosting duties for the ceremony. Keep the laughs coming!
